Will you obey the command to fire a nuclear weapon at Iran?

Iran, Ukraine, Greenland.

During the past month, Russia launched the largest air attacks on a foreign nation since WW2. More than a thousand drones were sent towards western Ukraine followed by Iskander ballistic missiles.

Ukraine destroyed an estimated 90% of the drones before they reached their targets and 70% of the missiles. This massive attack targeted Ukrainian infrastructure with the intentions of seriously disrupting rail supply routes from Poland into Ukraine, road communications, and troop movements. As a result of the large numbers involved, some ordinance inevitably penetrated Ukrainian air defences but were unable to cause sufficient damage to undermine Ukraine’s war effort.

This enormous expenditure of ammunition by Russia cannot be quickly replaced and indicates a growing desperation among their ruling bodies and military leadership. After four years, nothing Russia has done has given them sufficient leverage to demand a surrender. April 2026 was the first month in four years when Ukraine took more territory than Russia.

Intelligence reports from Ukraine indicate at least four hundred Russian oil wells have been capped because there is no storage. Persistent Ukrainian attacks on oil and gas terminals, pumping stations, storage and supply links have made it impossible for Russia to move, store, or export their oil. Despite the raised price on the world market, they cannot deliver. 40% of Russia’s income comes from oil exports. This reduced revenue further affects Russia’s ability to maintain its war.

When oil wells are capped it is not simply a matter of opening them up in the future. Most Russian wells are situated in the far north where the ground is permafrost. Once closed the oil will freeze in the pipes. It will be expensive and time consuming to reopen them. As the storage and export problems persist, more and more wells will close and Russia will become financially unviable.

Ukrainian General Syrsky has estimated Russian casualties to be 3.5 times those of Ukraine with as much as an eight to one in fatalities. Such losses are serious for both sides but whereas Russia discards the wounded and fails to provide casualty recovery and casualty clearing stations, Ukraine has proved to be the opposite. Ukraine has unmanned, robot recovery vehicles that can recover casualties from front lines without risking more lives.

The illegal and unwarranted attack by the USA on Iran was initially a great disappointment to President Zelensky who knew it would improve Russian Income. Trump in an effort to keep the US gasolene prices below $5 per gallon withdrew sanctions on the Russian shadow fleet that transported oil for Putin. Ukrainian attacks on the Russian oil terminals has neutered this concern.

Putin is facing defeat in Ukraine. In four years, Russian power has diminished dramatically worldwide, in Syria, Africa, Cuba, China, Moldova, Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan. Within its own borders regional leaders on the great Siberian and Asian land mass that constitutes Russia are considering pushing for autonomy. Their contribution to the Ukraine war has depleted their working population and future population growth. China is gently pushing back regional borders by simply populating dying villages.

The other empire under extreme pressure is Trump’s USA, having started a war they discoveredthey are unable to defeat a smaller but very astute enemy. Unrestrained power has led to an unrestrained disaster for the USA. They are stuck in a completely unnecessary conflict with no way out other than an ignominious withdrawal leaving the previously open Strait of Hormuz to become a toll gate for world energy supply under the auspices of Iran.

With no face-saving way out of the situation Trump has resorted to repeated threats and deadlines that he continues to retreat from and push back. It looks like Iran is going to be Trump’s great downfall, so what options does he have? Run away, pretend he has won, say he will be back unless they behave, make a humiliating deal or do what he says and destroy the whole of Iranian civilisation.

It’s obvious this means threatening a nuclear weapon at Iran in the hope it produces a 1945 Japan result. Stupid and dangerous it certainly is, but Trump has always been evil, only now, he is evil, unrestrained, and demented.

His statements give the impression he has discussed this as a viable option and met resistance. However, it is already patently obvious when Trump meets resistance he finds a way to remove it and appoints a lacky. We should be prepared to see more senior pentagon official removed in the coming days and weeks.

The question congress committees should be asking their generals is ‘Will you obey the President if he orders you to fire a nuclear bomb at Tehran and kill a million people?’

If they answer ‘no’ they guarantee they will be removed; if they answer, ‘yes’ they are admitting they will commit genocide on the whim of the President. Hegseth of course will do whatever he is told.

Trump must hope that possibility alone will induce a surrender. His ignorance of Iran will most likely lead to yet another embarrassing climbdown, but the question to the US military command is still there.

Will you obey the command to fire a nuclear weapon at Iran?

While all these problems are on going, Trump is still trying to bully or bribe Greenland into surrendering its sovereignty to the USA. Trumps special envoy to Greenland Jeff Landry, has become Trump’s new leg-breaker and is attempting to present Greenland with ‘an offer it cannot refuse.’ Denmark is currently in the throws of forming a new government and currently lacks the direction and leadership required to repel US extortion attempts. Landry is trying to bribe officials with a ‘take the money or suffer the consequences’ kind of deal. He wants not only to expand the US presence but also wants sovereignty over the expanded base areas, which is tantamount to a military occupation. Trump justifies his actions with claims of Arctic security but in reality he wants Greenland’s mineral wealth and is prepared to steal it.

Greenland is a part of Denmark and as such a member of NATO. I would hope they continue to provide a categorical rejection of US gangster tactics and discover whether Trump wants a new conflict with the rest of NATO to add to their current defeat in Iran.

The USA is becoming as isolated on the world stage as Russia. Europe must step into the expanding political vacuum before it’s all left to China.

I write to fight.

Robin Horsfall