Who has the cards now?

The new world order.

Ukraine has signed new defence deals with several middle east countries. The Trump war on Iran has revealed weaknesses in a USA defence system which many countries came to rely on to protect their mutual interests. The recent wars in Ukraine and Iran have changed the geopolitical landscape of the world forever.

Forced for four years, to use precision against the mass attacks of the Russian military, Ukraine found a new way of fighting war. Young innovators persuaded military experts they could observe the enemy, reduce risk, and direct artillery fire from the skies at low risk and cost. Desperate and searching for alternatives, Zelensky’s government and military leaders saw a chink of light and opened it wide.

Drone warfare has proved itself capable of defeating modern air defences, tank armour, fast jets on the ground and capital ships at sea and in harbour. This is not only military dominance but financial dominance too. A fleet of sub surface marine drones has the capacity to penetrate defences and sink or disable an aircraft carrier. The cost imbalance is dramatic. A Ukrainian sea drone costs $250,000. The US Aircraft Carrier, Gerald R Ford, $13.2 Billion. A Russian T84 battle tank, $4 million a US Abrams Tank $8 million, an attack drone can destroy both for $5000, and with multiple hits perhaps $30,000. Only this week the Russian Frigate Admiral Makarov was hit by drones in Novorossyisk. This was the last Russian ship in the Black Sea that could launch Calibre missiles inot Ukraine.

Drones are cheap and effective and are now being mass produced in Ukraine and Europe. They have proved themselves capable of overwhelming air defences, defeating battle tanks, helicopters in flight, jets on the ground, ships at sea, and infantry advancing towards front lines. They have destroyed logistic and communication hubs, headquarter groups and infantry concentrations and training centres. They have successfully depleted the Russian economy by striking oil infrastructure from the wells and refineries, all the way down to the loading terminals. The Russian economy is grinding slowly to a halt.

This is a geopolitical shift in warfare and technology and only those nations prepared to invest in these new systems will survive the change. The old system of imposing power internationally with a large economy and huge military might is beginning to fade. Although still valid in some respects, its time is ending, just as cavalry attacks ended with the advent of the machine gun in 1914.

Drones can be produced in quantity at low cost. High-cost high maintenance Russian S300/400 air defence systems and US patriot missiles cannot shoot down 200 drones and drone decoys in one night. Ukraine manufactured 4.5 million drones in 2025. In the same period Russia made 3 million.

The advantages of a large economy and huge armies have been reduced. However, if Ukraine proves one thing it is for the importance of highly trained infantry in large numbers, supported by drones to take and hold territory. The so called ‘boots on the ground.’ All the technology in the world cannot operate without this vital arm of the military.

The recent USA attack on Iran is a prime example of how these weaknesses have been exposed across western defence systems. US carriers and ships cannot enter the Straits of Hormuz to impose themselves. They are relying on air power alone. In response, USA bases in UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq have been hit with drones and ballistic missiles working in conjunction to overwhelm the USA supplied air defences.

Arab states have turned to Ukraine with a plethora of technology and a surplus of materiel, is perfectly positioned to provide the answer. This is excellent news for Ukraine who until now have been forced to beg, borrow, and promise their mineral wealth in return for funds to fight. These deals will add much needed revenue to the Ukrainian war chest. This is blow to Russia who hoped Viktor Orban could continue to veto European funding at a crucial time. Spring has arrived, the weather in changing and new offensives are planned in Donbas.

Although the USA is by no means dead in the water, it appears to be falling behind the new paradigm. Some military leaders in the Pentagon have pushed the idea of buying Ukrainian technology but a new purge of the military leadership has stifled hopes the USA could keep up with the new order, especially with the lack of expertise in the US Department of War/Defence.

Having engaged Iran in a full-on military offensive, the USA has failed to achieve its stated objectives which began with a demand for unconditional surrender and have reduced gradually to promised of a USA withdrawal ‘soon.’ This might be interpreted by the media as an unconditional surrender by Trump rather than by Iran who also seem to have some cards to play.

Ukrainian drones could suppress Iranian missiles, drones, mini-submarines, fast boats, and mine layers with some relevance in the coming weeks to open the Strait of Hormuz, defend infrastructure and defend oil and gas production centres. Ukraine is becoming the new ‘go to team’ for defence.

The world is not yet ready to discard the USA, but the USA is losing its appeal and leverage. Europe’s continued investment in Ukraine is an investment in European defence. Working together they could lead the military sales of the future to replace the USA hegemony over the arms industry and the reliance of other nations on their largesse.

The Zelensky power pendulum has swung. Arms sales are the entry point to prosperity in other ways. As new strategic partners come to rely on Ukrainian technology new doors in trade, will follow. The new deals will fill the coffers in Ukraine. Confidence for a Ukrainian victory will grow and produce confidence in investment in trade, business, and interdependency. Ukraine has the potential of being the strongest military power and leading economy of Europe in the next ten years.

President Zelensky and the Ukrainian people have earned the respect and trust of the world with their resilient defence, innovation, and courage. They have proved themselves to be people to do business with for the long-term future. On the other hand, the current leadership in the USA is resented and mistrusted. Trump tried to bully Ukraine into surrender and tried to steal their mineral resources. The USA withdrew intelligence sharing at a crucial time when Ukraine was holding territory in Kursk forcing a tactical withdrawal.

The mistrust doesn’t stop there. Trump has lost trust across the world. The USA is becoming isolated. Nations are sensing these changes and are saying no. Greenland, Denmark, France, Italy, Germany, UK, Baltic states, Poland, Finland, Canada, Armenia even Zambia have sent a resounding ‘No!’ to recent Trump demands. Iran has called him out and he has been found wanting. Now it is time for NATO to do the same. There are military flight restrictions over European territories and a reluctance to share intelligence. There is a growing determination outside the USA to expand support for Ukraine, despite Trump’s personal abuse thrown at European leaders. This will have a persistent affect on future alliances.

The deals in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Oman, and Qatar will have repercussions. In Iran, the USA has resorted to strategic bombing and threats against the civilian population, a method that has never produced victory.

Terrible as the US attack on Iran has been, every cloud seems to have a silver lining. The war in Iran has turned out to be an unexpected financial boost for Ukraine. It has created a new need and a new world leader in the defence industry.

Slava Ukraini!

I write to fight.

Robin Horsfall

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