Ukrainian air defences.

A new kid on the block?

Ukrainian air defences.

A new kid on the block?

(Picture By UK Ministry of Defence - https://www.gov.uk/government/news/advanced-future-military-laser-achieves-uk-first, OGL 3.)

Ukraine’s Forces continue to boost their air defence capabilities to counter Russian Shahed strike drones. The current composition of Ukraine’s air defence systems includes a variety of western systems but also relies on Soviet Union era equipment. There are significant gaps due to shortages of interceptors and delays in supply, a single delay can be responsible for increased civilian deaths in Ukrainian cities.

International coalitions have been established to improve Ukraine’s defences, aiming to meet Ukraine’s immediate needs. However, these steps do not resolve the fundamental issue of an insufficient supply of air defence weapons.

Ukraine is currently creating a layered defence system to counter Russian Shahed and Geran drones. These mass-produced flying bombs are being produced in sufficient numbers to penetrate Ukrainian air defences. Even when 90% are shot down those drones which get through are striking the power grid and civilian population areas. Geran drones, (the latest update) fly at a greater height and make a vertical plunge onto their targets making them harder to destroy in flight. There is a constat struggle to stay ahead of Russian innovation and reduce costs.

The great advantages of the Russian Shahed is its low cost and rapid production rates in comparison of advanced air defence missiles like Patriot. Russia is reported to produce more than one hundred and thirty Shahed drones per day, whereas it can take more than a year to produce fifty Patriots. Ukraine is now testing various new ultra low-cost interceptor drones. These drones can loiter in the air for long periods waiting for enemy drones then bring them down well short of the target. These new weapons can fly high and fast but will prove very cost effective when produced on mass. After successful tests Ukraine is already investing in increased manufacturing. These interceptors will be cheaper than Shahed and as such give Ukraine a renewed tactical and economic advantage.

Ukraine’s air defence priority is to train more interceptor operators and provide them with effective strike systems and radars. However, even with those operators in place an increase in air defence supply is essential. European nations have provided as much as they can, but it is Ukraine who once again has shown the innovation and genius to solve the problem.

Ukraine’s continued depletion of Russian s-300 air defence systems and supporting radar has created gaps in Russian air defences which Ukraine is exploiting. Ukrainian jets can now fly higher and launch their Hamar missiles from a greater range to strike vital tactical targets with precision. Ukrainian ‘Flamingo’ drones are penetrating as much as 1500 km into Russia to strike oil depots, power grids, and other vital targets like Kerch Bridge. Crimea is becoming more isolated every week as the bridge is reduced to light vehicles only.

Ukraine continues to eliminate shortcomings and strengthen work in the UAV interceptor area. Any system produced domestically in Ukraine has the advantage of being cost effective and homogeneous providing a single system for all operators with unified production, recovery, and repair systems. The weakness of having many systems and suppliers is cost, variable operating methods, and reliability. Although it could also be argued that multiple systems are more resistant to counter measures.

Recent claims that nine Russian hypersonic missiles were shot down before reaching Kyiv, were quickly muted indicating either it was untrue, or there might be another new kid on the block, Dragon Fire, the new British laser air defence system. In 2024, the UK Ministry of Defence announced new procurement rules to increase the weapon’s rate of development. Last year UK Defence Secretary Grant Shapps stated, ‘An early version of the weapon could be used by Ukraine in its defence against the Russian Invasion.’ If this is the case it would tempt me to use that much overused term ‘Game Changer!’ and a boost for British innovation and technology.

Air defence is a priority for Ukraine. When they control the air, they control the whole battle space. The effectiveness of anti-Shahed interceptor systems and the increased reliability of missile defences will greatly affect the future security of Ukraine and the progress of the war.

Slava Ukraini!

I write to fight.

Robin Horsfall

(Join my fight, be a paid subscriber)