Ukraine/Russia Update

'I am the greatest Russian since Peter. I am invincible!'

Ukraine/Russia Update.

‘I am the greatest Russian since Peter. I will restore the empire!’

When Putin failed to take Kyiv in 2022, I said he had already lost the war. From that point forwards it was about how long it would take before he realised it. Had he withdrawn and claimed victory he would have lost very little. At last, in the face of a growing defeat, that realisation is starting to germinate.

Putin’s 21^st century army was always a bluff, just as the cold war army of the Soviet Union was a bluff. Most of Russia’s military materiel was left over from the war. After taking 30 million casualties in WW2 and then wiping out a significant part of their own population by ethnic cleansing under Joseph Stalin, the Soviet Union had no money, few young men, a limited workforce, and incompetent leadership. The Russian army lacked technical innovation and was kept in large holding areas, lined up in long ranks to impress US satellite surveillance. Most of it was rusty, broken, and useful as spare parts. However, combined with a large conscript army, it still represented a significant force against nations that were busily reducing their capacity to defend themselves. Belief being as useful as reality, they kept Europe worried and in need of US protection.

All that began to crumble when weaknesses were exposed during the Soviet Union’s 1979 occupation of Afghanistan. 15,000 Russian dead over ten years. Their casualties and costs led to a humiliating withdrawal in 1989, followed quickly by the collapse of the Soviet Empire in 1991.

Four years ago, Russia was raking in money, selling gas and oil to Europe, building pipe lines under the sea, negotiating big deals, and earning the grudging respect of the world. Russians travelled abroad, buying small houses by the Black Sea, driving good cars, wearing good clothes, and becoming international tourists. The expected lifespan of Russians increased as the health of the nation improved and lots of children were born. Russians were welcomed in European universities and cities. The future looked rosy.

Now however, Russia is back in the same failed picture with a million casualties over four years. The one great failing of autocracies and dictatorships is the leader becomes irreplaceable (in his own mind) and hubris plants its poison inside the supreme leader’s head. ‘I am invincible. I am the greatest Russian since Peter. I will restore the empire!’

A million young, affluent, educated Russians left the country in 2022. They were smart enough to see what was coming. A drop in living standards, forced entry into the military and the end of the Russian free press.

If Putin is to survive, he needs time. Time to refill his war chest, refill the ranks of his armed forces, make or bribe new friends, and time to undermine the unity of the coalition of the willing. The Trump supported ‘peace negotiations’ are attempting to provide the time Putin desperately needs.

World leaders understand this very well and are seeking every avenue to reduce the time available. If Putin cannot win the war he must win the politics. Politics, in war and in peace is subterfuge, assassination, coercion, bribery and corruption otherwise known as ‘negotiation.’ The three Putin efforts which have shown fruit are in Hungary, Slovakia and most importantly the USA. Hungary and Slovakia chose to retain their dependency on Russian oil and gas and as a result have been compelled to undermine the efforts of the European Union to impose sanctions on Russia.

Outside Europe, Turkey, India, and China continue to purchase and refine Russian crude oil which extends Russia’s ability to maintain war. There are two refineries in China, four in India and two in Turkey. These are now the main lifeline for keeping money flowing to Russia. Cut these, and the world cuts Russia’s throat in double quick time. There is a balance to be made, much of the world still needs some oil and gas from Russian sources.

On the battlefield Ukraine has spent most of the past four years absorbing the best military efforts Russia can throw at it. At the same time, Ukraine built alliances, a war chest (courtesy of the coalition of the willing) and improved their weapons and manufacturing. Russia continues to throw more men and materiel at Ukrainian defences with a miniscule measure of success counted in empty fields and destroyed villages. If we exclude Ukrainian lands occupied before 2022, Russia has taken and held less than one percent of Ukraine in four years.

Cutting Russian communications through Starlink this year has created several openings for Ukrainian infantry to clear and recover contested territory, including the Kherson islands in the Dnipro estuary, Pokrovsk, and Kupiansk. New penetrations are occurring daily as Russian air defences continue to be stretched and destroyed.

This week, Ukrainian cruise missiles and drones completed a coordinated attack on ammunition distribution centres as far away as Kazakhstan’s western border with Russia. Munitions stored and prepared to supply the front lines for the next three months have been destroyed in several devastating drone and missile strikes all confirmed by local reports and air surveillance pictures.

For the first time, Ukraine has a surplus of attack drones and feels so confident in the supply chain they can use them to target individual infantrymen. Flamingo cruise missiles have penetrated up to 3000km into Russia revealing failed air defences.

As Russia’s wealth find diminishes Russia is attempting to sell its own treasury bonds, but no one wants to buy them, leaving Russia to buy its own debt. This is certain to lead to hyper-inflation as they print more money. Russia’s hydrocarbon share of GDP in 2022 was 40 %. It is now less than 25%. Oil needs customers. In some armoured vehicle factories, the workforce has had its work program cut by fifty percent in response to a lack of materials and skilled engineers.

China and India have purchased Russian crude at a heavily discounted price. The customers have no more storage capacity so that income has dried up. Secondary sanctions on India and China have reduced Russia’s customer base significantly despite a Russian shadow fleet transporting illegal supplies. Russia must keep its oil wells operating and pumping. Once shut down they would be very difficult to restart. They have already reduced production while storing hundreds of thousands of barrels of crude in static tankers at sea, hoping for a buyer.

The Russian national wealth fund was $135 billion but is now reduced to $43 billion but much of that is not liquid assets, it is held in gold reserves, some of which has not been mined. Russian economists have given themselves four months before they are technically broke. No money, no war.

Putin’s hope of a Trump rescue is weakening by the day. As Trump weakens at home under the pressure of the Jeffrey Epstein investigations, his efforts to force a Ukrainian surrender diminish. Last week, Marco Rubio ran from the Munich Security Conference to visit Victor Orban following which, Hungarian diesel supplies to Ukraine were suspended. This was not a coincidence. Trump’s criminal enterprise continues to shake down Ukraine.

President Zelensky has proved himself up to the task of taking on the world’s worst bullies. The rest of us are learning to mimic his courage. Europe is increasing its manufacturing and defence investments. ‘Make your own and buy European,’ is the new EU policy, much to the chagrin of the USA. Canada is dumping the F35 jet for the Swedish Gripen, a superior and cheaper aircraft with home manufacturing and no risk of suspect software. A token force of European troops are in Greenland challenging to Trump to call their bluff. Europe has enemies front and rear for the first time in 100 years.

The more time Europe gains supporting Ukraine, the greater the chance it will be able to reduce the leverage being exercised by the USA over their politics and defences. The USA is blundering around in the Arabian Sea threatening Iran. This looks like a distraction away from Trump’s domestic issues and a new redirection of media attention away from Ukraine as the war swings strongly against Russia.

Russians economists give themselves four months before they go broke. This doesn’t denote an immediate end of the war. Putin will spend his last Ruble and kill the last Russian conscript in the hope Ukraine will give in first. His life depends on it. Having taken the process so far, he cannot find a way out. Inflation, starvation, hypothermia, and stolen savings must eventually lead to a popular uprising in Russia. Perhaps an oligarch or general will get there first.

Eventually it must be the Russian people who end the war and say ‘enough!’

Slava Ukraini!

Our treasure, their blood.

Robin Horsfall

(I write to fight. Become a paid subscriber.)