Trump’s self-imposed imprisonment

Why international leaders don't assassinate one another?

Trump’s self-imposed imprisonment

Why international leaders assassinate don’t one another?

There is an unwritten understanding among national leaders that they do not kill one another. This ‘understanding’ protects not only them, but their nations. If a leader is to be deposed or disposed of, it is their own citizens who must do it.

Removing the head of a nation leaves it leaderless and its opponents without a reference point from which to negotiate. Lacking an accepted representative, or imposed puppet leader, the top spot is contested and fought over internally. An established leader no matter how ruthless will always have an administration or civil service. This will continue to manage the needs of the nation through any transition. Food will arrive and lights will stay on. However, if a national leader is murdered by a foreigner, it is most often the case war will follow, the regime will become paranoid and oppressive and there will be no one left with whom to negotiate for peace.

Such was the case with the executions of Saddam Hussein and Muamar Ghadafi. Deposed leaders are often allowed to live and placed out of country where they can live out their lives in some form of home confinement. Idi Amin and Bashar Assad would fit this category. This might sound unfair, but time and experience has proved that crushing the cockroach can lead to a hundred little replacements.

Keeping leaders alive, eases the desire for revenge and repercussions. The world moves on in some relative form of security. Experience has shown a deposed living enemy is preferable to a dead one.

Donald Trump executed the supreme leader of Iran…

without the support of his government. He started a war illegally with an executive order. The Ayatollah will be replaced. The regime is still in power. Inside Iran little has changed in terms if who runs the country. Only now they are at war with the USA. More importantly they are engaged in a personal war against Donald Trump.

Trump has no understanding of the Iranian or Islamic cultures. He cannot understand the psychology of people who genuinely believe in their deity and an afterlife. Frustrated or indoctrinated, Muslim terror groups have proved their willingness to die many times in acts of malice against their enemies. The successful 2001 Al Qaida attack on the Twin Towers in New York and the Pentagon in Washington DC are the most infamous examples. These however were acts of war or terrorism against a nation not an individual.

Trump’s executive order and deliberate execution of Ayatollah Khomeini will quite accurately be perceived as personal. Trump perceives Iran as weak and insignificant against US power. But Iran still has enough funds, skills and facilities to take revenge. Other parties targeted for vengeance might include Trump’s cabinet and family, but it will be Trump alone who must settle the perceived debt.

Until he dies, Trump is now inside a prison of his own making. The threat against him has increased exponentially and this threat will persist. Although his secret service detail will act accordingly and raise what is already a high-level security program they understand very well, no castle is impregnable.

The three principles of close protection are to deter, detect, and react. A high degree of visible deterrence prevents a majority of assassination attempts because a route to the target cannot be established. Detection is more difficult. Primarily this begins at the intelligence level rather than with the close protection team. By the time is gets to the operational area, secret service teams are searching for known faces and unnatural behaviours in the surrounding population. If called to react then the two former principles have failed to some degree. It is only at this point that weapons are used to defend the principle. Cordons of snipers and law officers create barriers but the close protection teams single role is to preserve the life of the principle.

Politicians, especially in a democracy, are public figures and must meet people and sponsors at some time. Every meeting and movement, every predictable presence is a choke point where the risk is increased.

All leaders have enemies and opponents. These can be viewed as assets for enemy agents but most importantly, the world of a President relies upon thousands of minor participants, ranging from the cleaner and clerk all the way up to the Chief of Staff. They can all be perceived as a threat. The world is fully aware of Trump’s views regarding Muslims and non-white people in general. This combined with his deteriorating mental health will inevitably lead to increasing paranoia. To quote the old half joke, ‘Just because you are paranoid it doesn’t mean that everyone isn’t out to get you.’ Everyone associated with Iran or speaking out against Trump will be regarded as a treacherous enemy from now on including the press. He will become more fearful, more insular and more dangerous.

When I was an international bodyguard, we planned and improved our defences by searching for weaknesses in our own systems of protection. How could we break through our own defences? We learned it was easier to attack than defend this type of castle, especially when as the attackers, we did not plan our escape. When we were prepared to die it was intelligence, deterrence and some from of deception that made things difficult. The greatest defence we could provide was to be unpredictable.

National intelligence services often identify and eliminate threats long before they get close. Deterrence, I have already mentioned. Deception involves misinformation, deliberate rerouting, changing timings, introducing look alike figures and having false convoys amongst several other tactics. When a President is late or has to redirect, this is often in response to intelligence reports. Being too predictable is a great problem.

Iran is a nation with sufficient funds to provide the method and the means of attack. The motive is already clear. They have access to high tech weapons. If Iran wants to kill someone (and they do) they will eventually do it. Trump has imprisoned himself.

If he flies anywhere, he is open to missile or attack drones. His aircraft must taxi, take off and land. A wire guided missile or drone can penetrate electronic jamming and penetrate armour.

If he drives, he is open to IEDs planted alongside or under roads and again is vulnerable to the new modern menace, attack drones.

If he plays golf, he will be constantly exposed.

Every time Trump has been on a platform, in front of a crowd, at a dinner, or visiting another country, he has always been vulnerable. Now he is more so. His only safe place is inside a building with the windows shut and the drapes drawn.

There is only so much a security team can cover. Close protection requires a schedule, timings, distractions. It requires advance groups to check every step of the route. Electronic scanning, investigations of all personnel including aircrew, aircraft maintenance, drivers, baggage, food, kitchen staff, guests, hairdressers, weapons, secret service, diplomatic service, police, cleaners, property maintenance. All routes including, fences, walls, windows, views, predictable bottlenecks.

The list is endless and it only takes one weakness to create a moment of vulnerability. When Ronald Regan was shot, his team reacted brilliantly, but something failed, a gap appeared and he was lucky to survive. The same could not be said for Jack or Robert Kennedy. They were people of the people, and as such had to place themselves at risk. It seemed to be a safer world then.

Has anybody here seen my old friend Abraham.

Can you tell me where he’s gone.

He free a lot of people, but it seems the good die young.

I just looked around and he was gone…

My old client, Rafic Hariri when Prime Minister of Lebanon, had an armoured Mercedes but his route was predictable. The Syrians killed him with an enormous roadside bomb. I once asked Rafic what his people were fighting for in Beirut. He replied ‘Robin, they are fighting for their gods.’

Trump is in prison of his own making. Iranians seeking to take revenge for the death of their religious leader will also be fighting for their gods.

Robin Horsfall

I write to fight.

Robin Horsfall was the bodyguard to Rafic Hariri in 1990-91,before he became Prime Minister of Lebanon.

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