Trump’s new deal!??

What a waste.

Saudi Arabia has released the text of the memorandum of understanding (MOU)between the USA and Iran. Let us be clear this is not ‘a deal’ a contract and arrangement or even in essence an understanding. It is only a suggestion or proposal to discuss the following items with the hope of reaching and understanding. That’s all!

If we examine each clause we will discover how flimsy weak and clumsy the proposal is. There is no detail, no depth the whole thing could have been written on the back of someone’s hand yesterday. However, what it proposes is a series of Iranian demands if the Strait of Hormuz is to be opened.

1. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States, together with their allies in the current war, declare upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and undertake that from now on they will not launch any hostile action against each other, and will refrain from the threat or use of force against each other. The final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article and the remaining Articles.

The weakness in this first clause is ‘including Lebanon.’ The attacks on Lebanon are directly under the auspices of Israel and require Trump to persuade Netanyahu it is in his best interest to cease operations against Hama and Hezbollah. Trump cannot promise anything on behalf of Israel. Trump supported Israel’s actions in Gaza and Lebanon and the attacks on Iran were a joint operation between the two. Trump will need to turn his back in Israel or pay Netanyahu for compliance adding more cost to his already failed and expensive operation.

2. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.

This is just hot air. Neither side intend to respect one another in any manner other than to return to plausible deniability. They will both push deceive and search for advantage at every opportunity. There is no goodwill or trust to build on. The only reason either side will bend is for advantage. Both sides ultimately need the oil to flow but Trump is restricted by time and public opinion. Unencumbered by such needs, Iran can afford to wait.

3. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to negotiate and reach a final agreement within a maximum period of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.

This will hopefully keep the Strait of Hormuz open for sixty days and then be extended for another short period until eventually it becomes the norm while talks continue. The hope is some sense of reality will gain access to the US government and they will eventually withdraw.

4. Immediately upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, the United States Lift the naval blockade and prevent any interference or obstruction against the Islamic Republic of Iran and restore traffic within a maximum of 30 days to its full capacity; the traffic of ships shall be proportional to the pre-war volume of traffic on the part of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States also undertakes to withdraw its forces from the surrounding areas within 30 days after the final agreement.

The MOU has not yet been signed and if it is, there is still no good faith on which to build confidence. Trump is likely to change his mind or delay signing at the last minute and force the whole tenuous arrangement to collapse again. The USA can ‘withdraw’ its forces, but the MOU doesn’t state how far. Out of the Arabian Sea or perhaps out of the whole region. The USA has proved unable to defend its oil rich allies from Iran. The US projection of power had been severely damaged. The hope here is for some kind of ceasefire rather than withdrawal.

5. Upon signing this Memorandum of Understanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran will immediately take steps to ensure that the movement of merchant ships from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa is resumed within 30 days to the pre-war volume, taking into account the need for the removal of technical obstacles and the neutralization of mines by Iran.

This is the key clause. Open the straits to traffic, relieve the world’s energy crisis, and drop the price of oil.

6. The United States undertakes, together with its regional partners, to create a comprehensive plan agreed upon by both parties for the rehabilitation and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran, While ensuring financing of at least $300 billion. The implementation mechanism of this plan, as part of the final agreement, will be formulated within 60 days.

This is the payoff, the surrender, the humiliation. However, it is worded it is reparations for damages caused. Currently Trump claims this will be provided in the form of ‘investment from private companies.’ Trump has no power to impose such investments into Iran. He might be able to convince Arabian oil states to pay the cost of America’s failure. They could afford it, but their cooperation could not be relied upon, after all they didn’t start this war, and they were not consulted about it in advance. The war was A conspiracy between Israel and Trump and will be a diplomatic minefield. The cost of Trump’s failure already exceeds hundred of billions of dollars. Congress will be loathe to spend even more US tax dollars, especially with mid term elections later this year.

7. The United States commits to ending on a schedule to be agreed upon as part of the final agreement, all types of sanctions currently facing the Islamic Republic of Iran, including resolutions of the United Nations Security Council and the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, both primary and secondary.

If the USA does end all sanctions against Iran it will merely be rubbing salt into the wounds. More humiliation for Trump. The USA no longer has the support of former allies to influence the UN security council or the IAEA. All these proposals would take time to discuss and introduce. Time is on Iran’s side. These are proposals the USA cannot meet. The best they can do is hope to push them aside in return for agreeing to other demands.

8. The Islamic Republic of Iran reiterates that it will never produce nuclear weapons. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have agreed that the fate of enriched material and the fate of all other mutually agreed nuclear-related issues, including Iran’s nuclear needs, will be adequately addressed in a final agreement; the final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article.

This one is easy for Iran. They had no intention of developing nuclear weapons until Trump ripped up the Obama agreement. There was no threat the matter was resolved. Iran was developing nuclear material for the development of nuclear power under the auspices of the IAEA. It would simply return to its former position. As an excuse for attack this was the weakest in Trump’s propaganda file. Iran was still years away form from producing a nuclear weapon and delivery system and like every other country that has a nuclear deterrent, possession prevents use. I have it, but I can’t use it without destroying myself.

9. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that, pending a final agreement, they will maintain the status quo: Iran will maintain the status quo on its nuclear program, and the United States will not impose new sanctions on Iran or strengthen its forces in the region.

This is the real hope and intention. If this single cause can be built on and agreed then the world can move forward. It is a question of how much Trump will give up to obtain such a position.

10. The United States undertakes that immediately after the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and until the date of the lifting of sanctions, the United States Treasury Department will issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, and all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation, and the like.

This is a continuation of the previous clause. One leading to the other. A return to some normality in business and trade.

11. The United States undertakes that, in light of the progress of negotiations towards a final agreement, frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be released and made fully available. These funds, whether held in the master account or transferred, will be used for any final beneficiary payment determined by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and will be fully available for use. The United States undertakes to issue all necessary permits and licenses on this basis.

The USA will have to give back frozen Iranian funds. The money is Iran’s. This is not a financial cost to the USA, but it would be another climbdown and loss of leverage.

12. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that an implementation mechanism will be established to oversee the successful implementation of and future commitment to the Final Agreement.

12. Following the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and upon receipt of assurances regarding the commencement of implementation of Articles 4, 5, 10, and 11 of this Memorandum of Understanding, and the continued implementation of these steps, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States will enter into negotiations for a Final Agreement solely with respect to the remaining Articles.

An agreement to talk about a formal and long-standing agreement. An agreement that existed in great depth and with great success under Obama. The agreement is already written and proven. The USA could just reinstate it and put Trump’s name on it.

13. The final agreement will be approved through a binding resolution of the UN Security Council.

In the current Trump led USA there is no such thing as a ‘binding resolution.’ There is no trust.

If this is the basis for talks, and if most of these proposals are agreed to it will be the greatest humiliation in the 250-year history of the USA. They started a fight, they lost, got licked, were beaten, destroyed, crushed, cast aside, defeated, hammered, got their arses kicked and were embarrassed. They spent a fortune they didn’t have, used all their high tech’ ammunition, killed schoolchildren, smashed infrastructure, and failed to achieve any strategic advantage. In the process of which they also killed or wounded many of their own soldiers and airmen.

In two years, Donald Trump has reduced the USA to an irrelevance on the world stage. He was tolerated or ignored at the G7. He still openly threatens to kill people if he doesn’t like ‘the deal’ as he insists on calling it. There is no deal, no good faith, no reason, no diplomacy just more threats and more abuse. What a waste!

America asked a violent, corrupt idiot to drive their bus and surprise, surprise, it has crashed. It’s going to take a real genius to fix it.

Robin Horsfall

I write to fight!

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