Trump has inadvertently dealt a death blow to Russia.
Ukrainian air superiority
Despite his best efforts to prevent a Ukrainian victory, Trump has inadvertently dealt a death blow to Russia with his arbitrary tariffs on multiple nations. The slowdown in industrial activity has reduced the demand for oil, this combined with increased output from Norway, the USA and Saudi Arabia has caused crude prices to drop. reducing Russian income to levels that threaten its ability to maintain its war economy.
Brent crude fell to $64.67 per barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell to $61.33.
The International Energy Agency stated, ‘global oil demand in 2025 will grow at its slowest rate for five years due to worries about economic growth from Trump’s trade tariffs.’ UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said if there was a recession in the USA prices could drop to $40 per barrel.
While this is bad news for the world economy, it can only be good news for Ukraine. Russia depends on hydrocarbons for more than 60% of it’s income. Russia has lost 70% of its gas sales since Europe found new suppliers. International sanctions have prevented most international sales of oil, even India and China have reduced demand under the threat of secondary sanctions.
Russia has already used almost three quarters of its National Wealth Fund to continue the war. The final tranche will disappear faster as Russia’s income drops even further. With current trends Russia will soon have to decided whether it wants to maintain its national economy or its war with Ukraine.
On the war front, Russian weakness continue to show. Russia has lost an estimated 70% of prewar military stock in armour, artillery, and ammunition, 50% of its fast jets have been destroyed, and it’s Black Sea fleet is unable to leave port. Russia’s only resource on the battlefield are hordes of forced conscripts who are being killed or wounded at an average rate of 1200 per day for no return.
F16s and Mirage 2000 fast jets combined with overwhelming superiority in drone numbers and technology have given Ukraine air superiority for the first time in three years. Ukrainian missiles and long-range fast drones can now fly 1500km into Russia. With the end of the fake ceasefire agreement on energy infrastructure imposed on Ukraine by the Trump ‘negotiators’ Ukraine can look forward to adding more pain to the Russian oil industry by destroying more refineries in the coming weeks. The supposed ‘ceasefire’ simply allowed Russia to restore some of the forty-five facilities that has been damaged.
Ukraine now produces more than 40% of its own ammunition requirements, it produces its own drones and missile systems. With the continued support of the west Ukraine is proving once again that it can defeat Russia. After Trump’s repeated claims of Ukraine freeloading on USA money, President Zelensky offered $50 billion to purchase more Patriot missiles. The offer was immediately declined by Trump, showing once again that he intends to extort a minerals deal from Ukraine in return for any assistance.
The summer months are approaching; dry weather will increase the mobility of the armed forces on both sides. However, Russia has been reduced to using civilian cars and motorcycles to mount assaults, has used donkey to transport ammunition, instructed men not to carry first aid kits into battle ‘because no one will recover you.’ Russia is running out of money and time, the only hope that keeps them firmly in the war is the Trump negotiating team.’ Back in the USA, American international hegemony is dying quickly, their power to influence foreign affairs is waning fast, instability in their own markets and public unrest combined with the loss of trust from former allies weakens Russian hopes even further.
Putin and Trump are facing similar issues, no money, no friends, and no future. Europe on the other hand could benefit from their integrity and firm resolve regarding Ukraine.
Slava Ukraini!
Who Dares Shares
Robin Horsfall
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Thank you Robin for an insightful piece.
I cannot make up my mind whether Trump us deliberately trashing the US economy before it naturally becomes bankrupt under the weight of its own debt, or whether he is blindly and simply out of his depth trying to fix the debt problem.
He could start by being honest rather than political in his statements. He could tell the truth and remind himself and others that he has one mouth and 2 ears for a reason. He could stop telling lies that make him seem great to ignorant Americans and despot states with whom he now appears to side.
Sadly he’ll do none of that. And the longer he carries in, the greater will be the revulsion of the free democratic world towards him and his nation.
The tourist economy is tanking. Lack of economic stability is affecting the US bond market. The European world is looking East while the far east is looking west. Few nations are looking to the USA for leadership.
This is a contribution with a justified optimistic outlook addressing the major aspects at the frontlines and in the Ukrainian sky.
I put my hope, indeed my conviction, in the new German Chancellor. Over the past two years he has had repeatedly argued as well as voted impressively in favor of a delivery of German Taurus to the Ukraine. At those times he headed the strongest opposition party in the German Parliament.
Bunker busting long range Taurus cruise missiles could play a match winning role in destroying further oil and gas refineries beyond a level where they could be repaired within sensible time. Other relevant Russian infrastructure are valid targets as well, especially bridges for replenishment and protected storage for ammunition.
South Korea possesses a good amount of Taurus. I can’t believe that they would wait for a green light from Berlin in case of being aggressed nor would they need German instructors on their soil to operate them.
And a multi million Taurus would hardly accidentally hit a Russian kindergarten or a hospital.