The World’s New Strongman.

"I don't need a ride..."

Four and a half years ago a recently elected, clean shaven, fresh faced young politician was attempting to provide his nation with the democratic freedom they so desired. He was already at war on his eastern borders a foreign government had infiltrated his country and claimed to represent the Russian speaking population who were ‘oppressed.’ In the west nations that supported his hopes had sat quietly by while the same aggressor had annexed the Crimean peninsula. Unwilling to interfere they protested and introduced some ineffective sanctions but felt Ukraine was still part of the Russian sphere of influence.

Ukraine under it’s new President Zelensky looked like red meat to two ravenous wolves. In the west Trump in his first term wanted access to Ukraine’s mineral wealth and scandal to spread about the son of his political opponent Joe Biden whose son Hunter had business interests in Ukraine. Zelensky said ‘No,’ to Trump and ‘No!’ to Putin. Each of these wolves regarded Zelensky as a puppy in politics and each would attempt to show him his place in the pack.

Trump procrastinated and held up much needed, approved and paid for military supplies to Ukraine but Putin invaded. He sent an army into northern Ukraine from Belarus on a three-day mission to occupy Kyiv capture Zelensky and replace the government. Russian Special Forces parachuted into Kyiv and attempted to take the regional airfields for resupply while an army set off down a single road 60 km in the middle of winter to enter Kyiv. It looked easy, the world’s second largest army against little Ukraine who didn’t even have a navy. It would be ‘a walk in the park’ according to Russian intelligence. How wrong could they be?

Warned of the impending attack Ukraine took measures while Ukrainian generals formulated a defence plan. In Europe politician offered Zelensky a place of safety, a place to hide, where he could protest to a toothless United Nations until he grew old. All that changed with his reply. He said, “I don’t need a ride. I need ammunition.” From that moment on Ukraine was going to fight in the fields and on the streets and never surrender.

The airfields in Kyiv were held by Ukraine while the army advancing south was stopped in its tracks by brave men with shoulder fired anti-tank weapons, infantry ambushes, and artillery attacks at short range. The Russian army was halted, severely depleted and forced back in ignominy over the Belarus border. At this moment Putin could have paused he didn’t need Ukraine; he simply wanted it. It was rich in resources and like all tyrants enough was never sufficient. Putin had built his reputation taking Crimea without a shot and linking it to Russia with the Kerch Bridge. He occupied most of Ukrainian Donbas already, his country was growing richer every day from oil exports, Russian quality of life was improving and his office was secure. He simply wanted more.

After four years of war, Ukraine has turned the tables. Supported by money and arms from the coalition of the willing in Europe and across the world Ukraine fought, and as it did, it innovated. They fought the Russian bear like a Honeybear. Small, but fearless and determined. Russia meanwhile concentrated on WW2 tactics of massed artillery, armour and infantry attacks; they did not innovate. Ukraine developed new weapons and tactics until the advent of the drone war. They could have won long ago if the USA had given them enough to win rather than just enough to fight. Perhaps in hindsight, the USA never had as much as they claimed, but it was equally likely they hoped Ukraine would bleed Russia dry and then increase their influence in Europe.

Neither was to find what they hoped for. Ukraine now stands as the world leader in military technology and tactics. Ukraine has destroyed the Russian navy in the Black Sea, reduced Russian armour and artillery by 70% and killed or wounded 1.4 million Russian soldiers. They have severely damaged Russia’s ability to maintain war by wearing down its money-making oil infrastructure. If Russia cannot earn money it cannot fight a war. Russia has little credit outside of China who will make them pay dearly for assistance.

Even if Russian mobilises it’s population, it doesn’t have the materiel to clothe, house, feed, or arm another army.

It is Ukraine that is making demands, Ukraine that is dictating terms. This week President Zelensky gave President Lukashenko an ultimatum, Remove your signal amplifiers from the border or we will. These amplifiers enhance signals which direct Russian drones onto targets in Kyiv. This is no bluff, Zelensky doesn’t need to bluff, he can do it. He had also told the Russian population of Crimea to leave “before it’s too late.” Queues are building on the only escape route left over the Kerch Bridge. The people need to move fast because Putin has halted all sales of gasoline to civilians. Only the army has fuel and that will run out because supply lines have all been cut. Crimea is about to fall, and Crimea will become Ukrainian once again. On the Donbas front the Russian 2026 offensive crumbled before it could begin as logistical lines and communications were destroyed. Ukraine is now slowly recovering lost territory.

It is Zelensky who has risen to be leader of the pack. The old dogs are hiding in their dens. Putin in his bunker while Trump has turned his interests to Iran in a carbon copy of the Russian attack. A short-term mission to force a sovereign nation into acquiescence has left him floundering too.

Russia and America have had their day. The former spent it’s money on war the latter on borrowing and stupidity.

Ukraine will become a member of the EU and eventually a member of a new NATO. Zelensky holds the cards now and he is playing them well. Victory is coming.

When the Ukrainians build a memorial to Zelensky they should write one simple sentence on it’s base. “I don’t need a ride. I need ammunition.”

Slava Ukraini!

I write to fight.

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