The last Russian outposts.

Crimea, Kaliningrad, and Transnistria.

Crimea is under siege and is edging closer to liberation from Russian occupation. The ‘land bridge’ that runs along the north coast of the Azov Sea is now under constant drone attack. This vital logistical supply line for Russia is littered with an endless stream of destroyed trucks and petrol tankers. Every vehicle on the road is subject to Ukrainian surveillance and attack. Ukraine still makes every effort not to strike civilian traffic but fuel and food for troops is as vital as ammunition.

On the west coast of Crimea, Ukraine has been launching attacks on shore-based Russian air defence with marine drones carrying missiles. The drones approach the shore undetected to further deplete the heavily stretched S300 and S400 sites. These attacks also create concerns within the Russian military of Ukrainian amphibious raids.

The Black Sea in the north is now a Ukrainian sea. Russia cannot operate their once dominant Black Sea Fleet. Thirty percent of the Black Sea fleet has been sunk while the remainder sits in harbour, unable to move for fear of following their comrades to the bottom of the ocean.

The Kerch ferries that were used to transport supplies the short distance from Russia to Crimea have all been sunk leaving only the Kerch Bridge road and rail link open. Kerch Bridge has been struck and damaged several times and its capacity to transport goods has been reduced. Some ask why it is still open and the logical answer is because it offers an escape route for Russian forces and civilians. Better they leave than Ukraine has to fight them.

Crimea is under siege and as the siege increases in intensity so the desire of Russians to leave will increase. The civilian population now have problems obtaining enough fuel to drive into Russia because petrol and diesel are severely rationed. Russia has stopped exporting all refined fuels for two months while Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries increase those fuel shortages.

Clean water will become an issue if fuel for water pumping stations becomes unavailable this summer. What was once a prime holiday resort for Russians might become a death trap for those still ignorant of the dangers that await them if they travel there.

Russia is unable to replace the 40,000 monthly casualties it is now enduring, and shortages are appearing all along the Donbas front. Russian could withdraw their forces from Crimea to plug those gaps and reduce the length of their front lines, but Crimea is more than a peninsula. It is symbolic of Putin’s time in power. He built Kerch Bridge; he occupied Crimea in a bloodless coup. He projected Russian power back into the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. The fall of Crimea would be the final nail in Putin’s political coffin. He has a dilemma, he cannot hold it, but he cannot lose it.

Conversely, Ukraine needs Crimea to have a lasting victory. Crimea not only controls the Black Sea it controls all access to the sea of Azov. It is crucial for long term security and economic recovery that the ports of Mariupol and Berdiansk are recovered and made operational again.

When an army is under pressure it is a wise tactic to create a distraction elsewhere to relieve pressure. A political strike that attracts world attention and affect allies is an effective method of gaining a respite.

The Russian strike on Romania with a single ‘stray’ drone is possible simply a guidance mistake, but it is just as likely to be a distraction or even another probe to ascertain the NATO response. Doing nothing in response to Russia’s drone attack in Romania or making diplomatic protests is not enough. Without a proportional response Russia will regard NATO as weak and push even harder. NATO must push back to prove any actions deniable or not will make the situation even worse for Russia.

This attack could prompt NATO to move air defences to the Romania/Ukraine border. With Ukrainian support NATO could create a no-fly zone in defence of Romania for aircraft coming within 30 miles of the Romanian border. This response worked for Turkey and Poland so it should also work here. There have been more than 300 Russian incursions into the airspace of NATO nations in the past twelve months.

NATO is eager not to let Russia provoke a response that can be used to garner support from the Russian population. Putin needs to sell another mobilisation and rake through his remaining manpower resources. If he can convince his public that terrible and aggressive actions have been taken against the motherland, he might turn public opinion around. President Zelenky’s continued avoidance of the civilian population centres is a wise strategy as well as a sound moral and legal principle.

NATO cannot be weak on this matter. The current unreliability of the USA leaves a weakness Russia will try to exploit. Marco Rubio, US Secretary of State declared that as far as negotiations are concerned the USA is out. The USA is stuck trying to find a way out of Iran without looking more foolish than it already does. Their loss of interest in Ukraine can only be seen as a positive, considering Trump tried to bully Ukraine into a surrender.

The USA currently has little to offer in arms, having fired most of its high tech’ ammunition stocks into Iran. Munitions deliveries from the USA have been put on hold for an undetermined period as they struggle to fill their depleted armouries. Trump is also beating his drums about invading Cuba which cannot be seriously considered a threat to the USA. this is a Trump distraction to further destabilise the international order. All these distractions including his reflecting pool and world cup chants which insult him take attention away from the most important issue as far as Europe is concerned; Russian aggression and the Russian occupation of Ukraine!

Other areas once considered to be Russian fortresses in eastern Europe are becoming vulnerable as Putin is forced to choose between maintaining military control or withdrawal. The issue of Russian troops in Transnistria on the eastern Flank of Moldova is similar to that of Crimea. Russian troops in Transnistria are also isolated and under siege.

Moldova is getting close to full EU membership; the biggest barrier is still the Russian occupation of Transnistria. As Russian influence decreases, Moldova is increasing their pressure to remove Russian troops from Transnistria where the troops have become isolated, all land and air access can now be shut down. It is becoming a little Crimea, trapped between Europe and Ukraine. What Putin thought was an island of resistance in the rear has become another impossible choice between hanging on or negotiating a humiliating withdrawal.

Russia is also becoming isolated in Kaliningrad. Kaliningrad is a Russian enclave on the Baltic Sea, captured and held by the USSR after WW2. Road and rail links via Belarus have been previously but temporarily closed by Poland and Lithuania through the Siwalki Gap which is Kaliningrad’s only land link to Belarus and Russia. When Russia invaded Ukraine, Finland and Sweden joined NATO and the Baltic became a NATO sea. Shipping can also be halted to the main port of Kaliningrad if desired.

Outposts that Russia once regarded as strongpoints behind enemy lines have become political and military disadvantages. Putin has already stripped Kaliningrad of all it’s defences to fight in Ukraine. Most analysts now agree the military, political, and economic advantage is swinging strongly in Ukraine’s favour.

Napoleon said, ‘When your enemy is making a mistake do not interfere.’ Russia is losing this war, so it is important not to be overly distracted and to maintain Ukraine’s effective strategy of degrading Russian infrastructure and destroying their capacity to wage war.

With the loss of the USA as a reliable European ally, we must all fully understand and appreciate the price Ukraine is paying for European freedom. Ukraine has bought us time to get our armed forces upgraded. European nations must use that time efficiently. We must increase our armed forces immediately, not drag our feet and play for time. We must be ready and willing to deter Russia and all other future adversaries. Our next battle might be in Greenland or Iceland!

Slava Ukraini!

I write to fight!

Robin Horsfall