[COPY] Two Failing Empires.
Russia and the USA.
South Caucasus.
Russia is withdrawing its remaining troops from South Caucasus a region that has always been vital as a strategic connection between Russia, Europe, and nations of the old Ottoman Empire. A wall between Islam and Christianity and vital trade route from India and China. The South Caucasus provides land links between Turkey, Iran and Russia and the trade links between the Black and Caspian seas. Alternative routes for oil supplies to Europe via Turkey also affect interests in the region.
Since the times of the Soviet Union Armenia has relied on Russia to provide a security umbrella. However, in the past months Russia has reduced its military footprint in Armenia by 50% and continues to reduce numbers. The financial and manpower demands of the Ukraine war continue to reduce Russia sphere of influence. Until now, these troops controlled all Armenian border posts and air defences.
In the absence of Russian power, Armenia and Azerbaijan have made positive steps towards an improved relationship. Often played off against one another by Russia who used their long-standing enmity to hold the balance of power…
Moldova.
In Moldova, which sits uncomfortably on the western border of Ukraine, the Russian dominated enclave of Transnistria is also finding a voice and rejecting Russian control over their politics. Moldovan and Transnistrian leaders have agreed to talks that exclude Russia. Russia maintains about 2000 Russian soldiers in Transnistria but cut off from Russia by air and land these troops are no longer self-sufficient and must rely on local purchases for food and energy. It is quite possible they will have to arrange to transit home in the near future. All this highlights a general weakening of Russian international influence.
Russia
Meanwhile, back in Moscow, there is an Internet blackout and unconfirmed reports of troops on the streets outside the Kremlin. Whether these are there to defend Putin or to take power from him we are yet to learn. Either way it is a serious indication of Putin losing his grip on power. Two more senior generals have been removed. One by arrest, the other by joining Moscow’s, Base jumping from windows club.
Troops on the streets of Moscow have not been seen since the times of Gorbachev and Yeltsin which ended the Soviet Union.
Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces continue to gain increasing dominance on the battle front; their troops are making increasing numbers of incremental advances along the front lines in Donbas and Zaporizhia. Ukrainian superiority in drone warfare is proving significant by overwhelming Russian attempts at counter attacks. Increases in drone manufacture and supply are enabling Ukraine to dominate the battle space on air, land and sea creating confusion and weakness at all levels of Russian military command.
The war in Ukraine should have been an opportunity to extend the influence of a USA led NATO and a weakening of Russia. Handled in almost any other way, the USA could have retained its hegemony over the western world and a belief in their values. The US economy might have found a route to recovery but all that is gone.
Iran.
In Iran with Trump’s war lacking any obvious rational or strategic aims, it is possible Trump committed US forces to attack Iran in an attempt to relieve the pressure on Putin. Anyone who has followed Trump’s behaviour towards Russia would conclude he has been a Russian sympathiser for many years. Whether that cooperation comes from bribery or fear we might never know but the result is the same.
Starting a war against Iran has taken world attention and vital resources away from Ukraine at a crucial moment. If Trump succeeds in drawing European powers into his self-made crisis this will adversely affect Ukraine. Not enough to defeat them, but enough to drag out the conflict and provide funds to Russia.
Using reduced oil supply and increasing costs, Trump has withdrawn sanctions on Russian oil. Millions of barrels of Russian oil have been stored in tankers at sea hoping for a customer. Now it can be sold. President Zelensky has protested this move will put up to ten billion USD into Russia’s diminishing war chest. However, the benefits of ‘Trump War One’ would still take time to feed into the Russian economy and we must hope it is too little, too late.
Any so called ‘deals’ made between Kushner, Witkoff, Trump, Putin and oil producers in the Arabian Gulf have exploded back into their faces. It looks as though they have dismantled a functioning system and sold off the parts. Now they are asking for help to tidy up their mess. There is a sensible reluctance from European leaders to come to Trump’s assistance while his actions in Iran face delays and problems, indicating it is not only Russia whose international influence is fading in the world of geopolitics.
China sits to one side, watching the damage accumulate, ready to do what the USA should have done four years ago, take advantage. The world relies on oil from the Arabian gulf. As the next few weeks pass there will be increasing pressure on Trump and Iran to negotiate some kind of settlement. That will not be easy, especially with the people Trump presents as negotiators. The Arab states will demand an opening of the Strait of Hormuz to sell their wares; the rest of the world will demand the same in order to buy them. Stuck in the middle is the US fleet bombing the hell out of everything and hoping for a result. Whatever that means!
Robin Horsfall
I write to fight.
(Join the battle. Be a paid subscriber)